The Economy, Public Mood, and What It Means for Dayton Real Estate

by Trent Barga

Every day, whether I’m walking someone through a home or strategizing a listing, one question keeps surfacing: “What’s really going on with the economy?” The headlines tell one story. Everyone’s gut feelings tell another. And living in Dayton, I’ve seen firsthand how those two worlds collide - especially when clients are deciding whether to buy or sell.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us Nationally

Here’s where things stand on the national stage:

Consumer confidence continues to slip, settling at 97.4 in August.
More people say jobs are “hard to get” the highest rate since early 2021.
Inflation fears are brewing, with many expecting prices to climb nearly 5% over the next year.
Around 35% of Americans are delaying major purchases, and that spikes to 57% among households earning under $50K.

These aren’t dry statistics. They explain why “Can we afford this move?” has become a common question, even when interest rates make buying look more appealing.

How Dayton’s Real Estate Market Compares

Good news: Dayton is showing resilience and opportunity, especially when compared to national hesitations.

Homes in the Miami Valley region are maintaining strong pricing. For July 2025, median sale price climbed nearly 8.98% to $270,000, and the average sale price rose 7.71% to about $304,479. Listings are keeping pace, with a full 100% sale-to-list price ratio Dayton REALTORS®+1.
Inventory is growing, too over 1.65 months’ supply in July, up from previous tighter levels Dayton REALTORS®.
Still, homes aren’t sitting forever. As of August 23, Dayton saw around 2,013 sold listings, with average list price at $237,304 and average sale price at $225,630. That gap shows buyers now carry more negotiating power Coldwell Banker Heritage+4Miami Valley Dream Homes+4YouTube+4.
Another recent report painted an even brighter picture average sales price jumped more than 11%, topping $324,000 WHIO TV 7 and WHIO Radio.
And by most measures, Dayton remains more affordable than national averages, which continues to draw both homeowners and investors Coldwell Banker Heritage+15the-sun.com+15redfin.com+15.

How It Feels Locally and Why That Matters

Dayton may be more affordable, but sentiment still shapes decisions. Clients feel uncertainty. Inflation squeezes budgets. And many are waiting to see if prices, and jobs, head in the right direction.

That’s our real opportunity right now: by grounding clients in real, local data, we cut through the uncertainty. While national headlines swirl, we can show them that Dayton:

Offers homes still priced below many metros, yet with steady growth.
Has a balanced market with modest inventory making the right homes sell fast.
Gives buyers negotiating power, but also ensures sellers get fair offers when priced smartly.

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers Here

Buyers: Yes, caution is understandable. But here’s the fact: homes are stable, prices are steady with slight growth, and affordability remains a strength of our market (Dayton/Surrounding area).

Sellers: Buyer hesitation means homes may take a little longer, but only if you expect last-minute bidding wars. The smarter move? Price with precision, embrace clear comps, and lean into local data because that’s what builds trust and confidence.

My Take (Straight from a Realtor Who Lives It)

Dayton real estate isn't about riding waves of uncertainty. It’s about helping people make decisions anchored in their lives, not the latest headline. Our economy won’t change everyone’s plans overnight but something reliable remains true: people still need homes.

My role is to guide clients past fear and into clarity. Show them what’s happening right here, right now. Help them see that confidence, once built, can carry them and their families through whatever comes next.